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Prediction Log

Make claims, set confidence levels, then check yourself.

3
total
1
checked

Calibration

You're overconfident. Your High calls are right 0% of the time (target ~80%).

You haven't expressed Low confidence yet. What are you genuinely uncertain about?

How well does your confidence match reality? Well-calibrated: High ~80%, Medium ~50%, Low ~20%.

High Confidence 0% right (target: ~80%)
Actual Target
Medium Confidence no data (target: ~50%)
Actual Target
Low Confidence no data (target: ~20%)
Actual Target

Pending (2)

A new social media platform will launch this year that becomes popular with teens

New platforms come out all the time like TikTok did.

Check: Jun 10, 2026 Medium
"Wrong would look like: No new platform gets popular this year."

Social media use will continue to rise among teenagers

Everyone is always on their phones so it will just keep going up.

Check: May 20, 2026 High
"Wrong would look like: Teenagers stop using social media."

Checked (1)

Most students in our class spend 3+ hours daily on social media

High

I spend about that much and so do my friends.

Reflection

I was kind of right because some people do spend that much.

New Prediction