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Prediction Log

Make claims, set confidence levels, then check yourself.

8
total
6
checked

Calibration

You're overconfident. Your High calls are right 50% of the time (target ~80%).

You haven't expressed Low confidence yet. What are you genuinely uncertain about?

How well does your confidence match reality? Well-calibrated: High ~80%, Medium ~50%, Low ~20%.

High Confidence 50% right (target: ~80%)
Actual Target
Medium Confidence 50% right (target: ~50%)
Actual Target
Low Confidence no data (target: ~20%)
Actual Target

Pending (2)

At least one major tech company will drop degree requirements for entry-level roles in NZ

Google and Apple have already done this in the US. The trend will spread.

Check: Jun 10, 2026 Medium
"Wrong would look like: No NZ tech companies publicly drop degree requirements."

Engineering graduates from our school will have jobs within 6 months of graduating

Engineering has the strongest job market of any degree. Companies recruit directly from universities.

Check: Jun 10, 2026 High
"Wrong would look like: Engineering graduates taking more than 6 months to find relevant work."

Checked (6)

The school will invite more non-university speakers to careers events this year

Medium

There's growing awareness of trades shortages. Schools are under pressure to present alternatives.

Reflection

Good prediction based on a real trend I noticed. Could have been more specific about numbers.

Government will announce changes to student loan interest policy before mid-year

Medium

Election year pressure and rising costs make student debt a hot political topic.

Reflection

I assumed my topic was as politically salient as it feels to me. Most voters care about other issues more.

More than half our class will apply to university regardless of their career goals

High

Social pressure and parental expectations drive applications even when students aren't sure. 'Keeping options open' mentality.

Reflection

Social pressure is a powerful force. Even students who told me they were considering trades still applied to uni as backup.

The careers advisor will recommend university as the default path for 80%+ of students

High

Institutional bias means schools are measured partly by university entrance rates. Advisors are incentivised to push uni.

Reflection

I was too cynical about institutional bias. The advisor was more nuanced than I assumed.

Average student loan debt for NZ graduates exceeds $35,000

High

Tuition is around $7000/year for 3+ years, plus living costs that the student allowance doesn't fully cover.

Reflection

I was anchored by the worst cases I'd heard about. Should have checked official data before predicting.

At least 3 students in our year will choose trades over university

High

Based on conversations, several students are openly considering trades apprenticeships. The trades shortage means good pay without debt.

Reflection

I had good information from direct conversations. Knowing actual people's plans gave me an edge.

New Prediction