Calibration
You're overconfident. Your High calls are right 60% of the time (target ~80%).
You haven't expressed Low confidence yet. What are you genuinely uncertain about?
How well does your confidence match reality? Well-calibrated: High ~80%, Medium ~50%, Low ~20%.
Pending (1)
At least one endangered NZ species will have a breeding programme setback this year
Conservation breeding is difficult and unpredictable. Disease, genetic issues, or funding problems regularly affect programmes.
Checked (9)
The school's Year 8 zoo trip will happen without any educational component about zoo ethics
HighSchool trips to zoos focus on fun and animal facts. Ethics discussions would be controversial with parents and complicated for younger students.
Schools avoid ethically complex conversations with younger students. But this means students form pro-zoo attitudes from uncritical exposure before they have tools to think critically about it.
People who visit zoos rate them as more ethical than people who don't
MediumCognitive dissonance - if you enjoy going to the zoo, you're motivated to believe it's ethical. Also, zoo visitors see the conservation messaging while non-visitors just imagine caged animals.
Small sample but directionally confirming. The experience of visiting changes perceptions, which has implications for how we form opinions about things we haven't personally experienced.
I'll find that most 'anti-zoo' arguments online focus on emotional appeals rather than data
HighAnimal welfare content tends to prioritise shocking images and emotional stories. Data-driven analysis is harder to find and less shareable.
The issue isn't that data doesn't exist - it's that emotional content dominates search visibility. This is true for most ethical debates, not just zoos.
Auckland Zoo will have at least one new conservation partnership announced this year
MediumZoos regularly announce partnerships to demonstrate conservation value. Auckland Zoo has been expanding its native species work.
Reasonable prediction based on the zoo's track record. Not particularly risky or insightful though.
A classmate working on an animal-related topic will cite PETA as a primary source
HighPETA is the most visible animal rights organisation. Students doing quick internet research will find PETA content first.
Easy prediction but highlights how the most accessible sources aren't always the most reliable. PETA has strong advocacy positions that don't always reflect scientific consensus.
The school library has fewer than 3 books that critically examine zoo ethics
MediumSchool libraries tend to have general animal books but not critical ethics texts. Zoo ethics is a niche academic topic.
This matters because it means students researching this topic have limited local resources. Most will rely on internet sources of varying quality.
More than half the class will initially say zoos are either 'good' or 'bad' without nuance
HighMost people hold binary opinions on animal issues. The topic triggers emotional responses that override careful thinking.
Not surprising but useful to confirm. Shows why the binary framing is the default people start from.
Auckland Zoo conservation spending decreased since COVID
HighCOVID reduced visitor numbers dramatically, and zoos depend on ticket revenue. Conservation programmes are expensive and would be easy to cut when budgets are tight.
I projected business logic onto a mission-driven organisation. Zoos aren't normal businesses - their core mission IS conservation, so they cut other things first. I need to be more careful about assuming organisations behave like profit-maximising companies.
My position will change at least twice during this project
MediumI'm starting with a strong opinion on an emotionally charged topic. When I actually engage with the evidence, I expect to be challenged. Genuine inquiry usually changes your mind.
Predicting my own intellectual development was useful. It made me more open to changing my mind because I'd already committed to expecting it.