Calibration
Your High calls are well-calibrated at 100%.
Your Low-confidence predictions are right too often (50%). You might be sandbagging - upgrade some to Medium.
How well does your confidence match reality? Well-calibrated: High ~80%, Medium ~50%, Low ~20%.
Pending (1)
NZ will not introduce standalone crypto legislation this year
NZ tends to follow other countries on financial regulation rather than lead. Current FMA guidance treats crypto as a financial product under existing law.
Checked (9)
At least 2 classmates will change their position on crypto regulation during the semester
MediumExposure to different arguments in class discussions tends to shift opinions. Crypto is a topic where people often update their views.
People do update views when exposed to good arguments. Education works.
ETH gas fees will average under $5 for at least one full week in the next month
LowLayer 2 solutions and the Dencun upgrade have been reducing mainnet congestion.
Good prediction based on understanding the technical roadmap.
Our school's economics teacher will describe crypto as 'speculative' in class
HighEconomics teachers tend to view crypto sceptically due to its volatility and lack of intrinsic value framework in traditional economics.
Very safe prediction. Teachers' views on crypto are quite predictable.
At least one DeFi protocol will suffer a major hack (>$50M loss) in the next 2 months
MediumDeFi hacks happen regularly. Smart contract vulnerabilities are common and the total value locked creates large targets.
DeFi hacks are unfortunately predictable at this scale. The question isn't if but when.
The majority of class members will agree that some crypto regulation is needed
HighEven people who like crypto generally support some consumer protection after high-profile scams. The extreme libertarian position is a minority view.
This was a safe prediction. Almost everyone agrees on some regulation.
A stablecoin will face a regulatory enforcement action within 3 months
LowRegulators have been increasing scrutiny of stablecoins globally. Tether and others have faced questions about reserves.
I learned that regulatory action is a spectrum from warnings to lawsuits. Should be more specific in future.
More than 20% of our class currently owns or has owned cryptocurrency
MediumCrypto is popular with younger demographics. Even small amounts via apps like Easy Crypto are common among teenagers.
Good calibration - I wasn't sure so medium confidence was appropriate.
At least one major country will announce new crypto regulation before June
HighMultiple countries are actively developing crypto frameworks. The G20 has been pushing for coordinated regulation.
This was almost a certainty given how many countries are working on this. I should have set higher confidence or made a more specific prediction.
Bitcoin will trade above $60,000 USD at some point in the next 3 months
MediumHistorical patterns show Bitcoin cycles between major highs and lows. Current market sentiment and institutional adoption suggest an upward trend.
Markets are unpredictable so I'm glad I only put medium confidence.